An optimistic evaluation of Obama's 2012 prospects:

<< << That's why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). >>

[snip]

<< As has been the case since 1992, the three biggest states--California, Texas, and New York--don't factor into presidential contests. Republicans in California and New York and Democrats in Texas are for all intent and purposes non-voters. Candidates will swing by on fundraising drives but the outcome is not in doubt. The same is true, in any given cycle, for the residents of most states.

<< If Sabato's figuring is right, Obama starts off with 247 electors in the bag. That means he only needs to peel off 23 more to get another four years in the White House. His Republican challenger starts off with 206 and therefore needs 64. Taking the three biggest prizes--Florida, Ohio, and Virginia--would leave the Republican 4 short. Obama, meanwhile, could win Florida, lose all six of the remaining swing states, and still hold on to his job. >>

Source:
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/obama-at-majority-disapproval-re-election-likely/

I think there may be more than seven swing states.

<< This is why the electoral college needs to be gotten rid of. No voter should for all intents and purposes be non-voters. >> --Josh

I agree completely.

Nine states (California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Vermont, Washington), representing 132 electoral votes, have signed on to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact,[1] which will require that signatory states cast their electoral votes for the winner of the national popular vote, instead of the winner of the state's popular vote. When enough states to represent 270 electoral votes sign on, then the agreement will become effective. Getting to 270 won't be easy.

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[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact