Previous Thread
Expand All
Collapse All
Ignore Author
Reply
There's a good article in the Texas Monthly about Rick Perry, Texas' Republican governor who is flirting with the possibility of running for president. The article is written as primer for "Yankee" journalists.
http://www.texasmonthly.com/2011-08-01/btl.php
My favorite paragraph from the article:
<< 8. Don't discount the luck factor. It is uncanny how often good fortune has been in Perry's corner throughout his political career. His opponents self-destruct, as Jim Hightower did in 1990, when Perry, a big underdog, won his first statewide race, for agriculture commissioner, and as Kay Bailey Hutchison did in 2010. In 2006, when he was at his most vulnerable, Hutchison opted not to challenge him. Perry got only 39 percent of the vote, but because there were four major candidates in the race, he won with a plurality. This spring, he lost two top aides to the Gingrich-for-president campaign, only to see Gingrich self-destruct and the aides return with national campaign experience. The list goes on and on. If you look at Perry's career, it seems that fate is always arranging the universe so that its favorite son will be in the right place at the right time. >>
I learned about the above linked article at http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/07/25/7159465-2012-wide-open-in-iowa
I can't estimate Perry's chances of winning the Republican nomination. But if he does get the nomination, then I'd guess that if the unemployment rate stays around 9% (unlikely) until the general election and Perry does not make any major mistakes during the campaign (also unlikely), then he has about a 5% chance of beating Obama. Republicans should be smarter than to nominate Perry.
MSNBC's First Read blog has a glowing report on Rick Perry's (R-TX) presidential prospects. The article draws the opposite conclusion from the one I drew in post 2003. Here's an excerpt to give you the flavor of the article:
<< "Rick Perry is the best politician to come out of Texas since LBJ," says Jason Stanford, a Democratic political consultant who managed Perry opponent Chris Bell's gubernatorial campaign in 2006. "His abilities are probably on par with Obama's."
<< Although Perry's announcement is still pending as he gauges financial support from potential donors, few Texans in the know doubt that Perry will jump in. (As local writer Harvey Kronberg said, he is "not exploring a presidential run, he is assembling one.") In fact, a more common parlor game among Republicans is speculating about who may fill his shoes if he packs his cowboy boots and heads for Washington. >>
Article:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/05/7266944-is-this-man-invincible-perry-eyes-the-gop-nomination
Although local observations are usually helpful, locals also have an unintentional bias that causes them to overestimate the abilities of successful local politicians.
As you probably know, Perry is calling on the nation to come to Texas today for a big prayer rally and day of fasting. The event will be open to everybody, so long as they're Christians. The list of sponsors of the event is the same as the list of America's worst cooky right wing Christianist loons. With such supporters, there's a good chance that Perry can win the Republican nomination, but I still believe that he cannot win in the general election. If Perry is as smart as Texans believe, then he will decline to enter the presidential race.
<< "Rick Perry is the best politician to come out of Texas since LBJ," says Jason Stanford, a Democratic political consultant who managed Perry opponent Chris Bell's gubernatorial campaign in 2006. "His abilities are probably on par with Obama's."
<< Although Perry's announcement is still pending as he gauges financial support from potential donors, few Texans in the know doubt that Perry will jump in. (As local writer Harvey Kronberg said, he is "not exploring a presidential run, he is assembling one.") In fact, a more common parlor game among Republicans is speculating about who may fill his shoes if he packs his cowboy boots and heads for Washington. >>
Article:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/05/7266944-is-this-man-invincible-perry-eyes-the-gop-nomination
Although local observations are usually helpful, locals also have an unintentional bias that causes them to overestimate the abilities of successful local politicians.
As you probably know, Perry is calling on the nation to come to Texas today for a big prayer rally and day of fasting. The event will be open to everybody, so long as they're Christians. The list of sponsors of the event is the same as the list of America's worst cooky right wing Christianist loons. With such supporters, there's a good chance that Perry can win the Republican nomination, but I still believe that he cannot win in the general election. If Perry is as smart as Texans believe, then he will decline to enter the presidential race.
