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NIXTROY

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Benes' Commodities Handbook Version 2 on 02/13/2003 09:15 PM CST

-- == COMMODITIES HANDBOOK == --
Version 2

Wow. It has been some time since I've written the first handbook. Over the years I've
seen a ton of great feedback in reguards to it and now it's time for a new version that
helps clarify what we already knew, fills in a few holes, and validates data that is
years old.

Commodities can be very profitiable. Even at extremely low levels I am able to turn better
profit from commodities than from contracts. Actually, as a low level trader (1-5th) I almost
always lose money on contracts. At 1st level i can gain enough trading with sticks to get into
doing commodity trading. I actually have a trader in TF that has never delivered contracts. :)

I spent many long hours in front of the commodities boards in all three pits in an attempt to understand what I was told was horridly and irrevocably broken. What I found was a system that not only works, but is very profitable and enjoyable. The trouble with the system lies in the inherent risks of the system and the dangers of running commodities without understanding those risks. In order to make a successful commodity run you have to have several things. First, understandably the price that you purchase the commodity at has to be lower than the selling price... the more the margin the better. Second, the supplier has to have enough of the commodity in stock to make the trip worth while. Thirdly, the destination pit must be willing to purchase the commodity in the amount that you want to sell. These three things are the basics... if you can master these then most of your trade routes will be good. I'll explain the deeper details after I explain how these work.

PRICE: The price of any commodity in a pit fluctuates. It's a good idea to know the average price for any commodity (I show these later). You never want to purchase a commodity at a price that is well OVER the average. This is because prices fluctuate. If the average price for slate is 362, and you purchase them at 450 planning on selling them for the shown 550 in the next pit... you are begging for trouble. What I have found is that on average, the higher a price is over the average, the more likely it is to drop... or even plummet.

CALLERS: Plummeting... those callers. At first I thought they were there for show, but they aren't. They are there to show one of two things. First, a caller will announce when the price of a commodity has reached an extraordinary price through slow means. (Slowly raising 1% or 2% every 5-10 minutes). More often, they will call when a price rockets up or down, but doesn't tell you which. The one thing that the caller SEEMS to mention sometimes, but never has any bearing on is the amount of the commodity in stock. The caller might scream that due to a shortage of long-haired sheep wool, the prices in Arthe Dale have rocketed to 5000 kronar, but you may get there to find that Arthe Dale will not purchase any more long-haired sheep wool. And that sucks. The only thing you can count on with the callers is that they are
announcing a major change of some kind. This has about a 50% chance of giving you a great
trade.

STOCK: Hmm... when WILL they buy? Simple really. Every pit will hold a certain amount of each commodity. Generally the more expensive a commodity is, the fewer the pit will hold. There are several categories of stock... sold out, going fast, etc etc etc. The REALLY important one is "Surplus!" and "Good stores". There is a breaking point... the single unit of commodities that breaks the barrier from Good Stores to Surplus. If Arthe will hold 500 units of white rice (ie: at the 500th unit they go to Surplus) and they currently have 100 units... you can safely trade about 390 units. I say safely 390, because stock slowly moves up and down with price... I always do about 5% fewer stock than I think a can so as not to get screwed. I show a chart below that shows the categories and how many units of a commodity it takes to move from one to another. There is a margin of error in this chart because of the way I get my info but it should be fairly good. The way I get my info is simple really. I discovered that if I try to purchase more units of a commodity than is offered the pit tells me to the unit how many they have... oh! Script time! order 200 diamonds, order 1000 wheat, order 1000 corn, etc, etc, etc.... then I look at the output. Trick is the commodities at the end of the list take a while to get to, and in some cases the stock CHANGES by the time my script runs... so the items at the end of my list are less accurate. But, you get the idea.

New: I have found that there is a 5 stock buffer. Ie: the chart will show pearls going surplus at
80 units, but they will ACTUALLY buy up to 85 despite still being in surplus. This allowed me
to relax a little more on how many I will buy.

Found to be false: . Also, with stock... it seems to be (and I haven't run my number-crunching against it yet) that the different pits have higher or lower norms for how much they keep.

CAPACITY: There is also the factor that you can only carry so many commodities. This is based on Circle, charisma, and trading experience, but I'm not sure the exact formula.

No longer true: (thank you GMS) Please note... Diamonds in Crossing is horridly broke. Leave them alone till our guild GMs fix it. (Hint hint nudge nudge)

WAREHOUSES: Hey, what can I say... I stayed away from them for a while, but I actually
like them. Very often I will see something WAY in the green. For instance, I've seen
slate selling for 52... it's average is 362. I bought 40 of them. And stored them. Now,
in my old system I would have cried as I passed them by since no one was buying them.
But with warehouses, when you see really really REALLY good buys, you can jump
on them and sell them later. But it's not for every-day trading.

Number of units in stock vs. stock category

Diamonds | 1 - 9 | 10 - 49 | 50 - 79 | 80 - 100 | 1811

Gold | 1 - 9 | 10 - 49 | 50 - 79 | 80 - 100 | 1122

Silver | 1 - 19 | 20 - 99 | 100 - 159 | 160 - 165 | 784

Saffron | 1 - 12 | 7 - 52 | 46 - 82 | 77 - 100 | 765

Pearls | 1 - 10 | 10 - 49 | 50 - 79 | 80 - 100 | 753

Silk | 1 - 10 | 8 - 49 | 50 - 81 | 79 - 100 | 577

Brass | 1 - 15 | 15 - 74 | 75 - 119 | 120 - 136 | 454

Cinnamon | 1 - 21 | 16 - 99 | 100 - 163 | 156 - 200 | 339

Slate | 1 - 20 | 18 - 99 | 100 - 160 | 158 - 200 | 362

Limes | 1 - 12 | 8 - 52 | 49 - 82 | 78 - 100 | 349

Purple dye | 1 - 12 | 8 - 50 | 48 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 280

Bronze | 1 - 11 | 11 - 61 | 62 - 99 | 100 - 125 | 277

Oranges | 1 - 23 | 16 - 102 | 97 - 162 | 158 - 200 | 260

Lead | 1 - 31 | 28 - 149 | 151 - 240 | 240 - 300 | 255

Velvet | 1 - 12 | 8 - 50 | 48 - 79 | 80 - 100 | 225

Lace | 1 - 12 | 8 - 50 | 48 - 79 | 80 - 100 | 237

Taffelberries | 1 - 22 | 16 - 102 | 98 - 160 | 156 - 200 | 192

Amber | 1 - 14 | 140 - 147 | 152 - 240 | 240 - 303 | 188

Copper | 1 - 26 | 23 - 122 | 126 - 199 | 200 - 250 | 194

Acanth | 1 - 19 | 19 - 97 | 98 - 159 | 159 - 200 | 184

Myrrh | 1 - 12 | 10 - 63 | 61 - 99 | 98 - 125 | 180

Indigo | 1 - 20 | 18 - 98 | 98 - 160 | 158 - 200 | 155

Papyrus | 1 - 14 | 15 - 72 | 75 - 120 | 120 - 150 | 147

Iron ore | 1 - 51 | 49 - 121 | 286 - 399 | 399 - 500 | 103

Barley | 1 - 42 | 37 - 193 | 210 - 320 | 318 - 400 | 81

Oats | 1 - 37 | 32 - 174 | 175 - 281 | 276 - 350 | 91

Wool | 1 - 39 | 39 - 196 | 203 - 319 | 319 - 400 | 85

Wheat | 1 - 43 | 37 - 199 | 213 - 321 | 317 - 400 | 71

Corn | 1 - 116 | 37 - 200 | 200 - 321 | 317 - 400 | 78

Deobar oil | 1 - 25 | 23 - 124 | 126 - 198 | 200 - 250 | 71

Cotton | 1 - 48 | 50 - 249 | 249 - 399 | 400 - 500 | 77

Salt | 1 - 49 | 50 - 245 | 262 - 395 | 417 - 500 | 34

Apples | 1 - 37 | 32 - 158 | 184 - 282 | 278 - 350 | 39

Charcoal | 1 - 71 | 71 - 327 | 386 - 560 | 558 - 700 | 35

This tells you for example.... that cotton's breaking point is at 400, and it's average price is 77.
These are really the two most important numbers. The "BREAKING" point being how many they go to SURPLUS! at... which should be your target to purchase up to. I always do 5 under, and that gives me a 10 stock cushion... the 5 under I buy, and the 5 over they will buy. That chart.... broken down... looks like this. Note, if you print anything to keep with you while
you work, this is it.

The Benes Master List

COMMODITY | BREAKING | AVERAGE

Diamonds | 80 | 1811
Gold | 80 | 1122
Silver | 160 | 784
Saffron | 80 | 765
Pearls | 80 | 753
Silk | 80 | 577
Brass | 120 | 454
Cinnamon | 160 | 339
Slate | 160 | 362
Limes | 80 | 349
Purple dye | 80 | 280
Bronze | 100 | 277
Oranges | 160 | 260
Lead | 240 | 255
Velvet | 80 | 225
Lace | 80 | 237
Taffelberries | 160 | 192
Amber | 240 | 188
Copper | 200 | 194
Acanth | 160 | 184
Myrrh | 100 | 180
Indigo | 160 | 155
Papyrus | 120 | 147
Iron ore | 400 | 103
Barley | 320 | 81
Oats | 280 | 91
Wool | 320 | 85
Wheat | 320 | 71
Corn | 320 | 78
Deobar oil | 200 | 71
Cotton | 400 | 77
Salt | 400 | 34
Apples | 280 | 39
Charcoal | 560 | 35

Here is the technical data on some of the trades I have seen in running
commodity runs... these are not a "best of" list... it's a snapshot of a
normal trading night.

02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 6, Slate, Arthe, 331, no , Crossing, 443, no , 33
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 24, Wheat, Arthe, 59, no , Crossing, 97, no , 64
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 133, Oranges, Crossing, 274, yes, Arthe, 288, no , 5
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 9, Brass, Crossing, 404, no , Arthe, 472, no , 16
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 133, Oranges, Crossing, 274, yes, Arthe, 288, no , 5
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 9, Brass, Crossing, 404, no , Arthe, 472, no , 16
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 22, Indigo, Crossing, 125, no , Arthe, 177, no , 41
02-01-03 12:34:04AM , 10, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:35:08AM , 10, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:37:18AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 8, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 62, Wheat, Crossing, 58, no , Arthe, 77, no , 32
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 8, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 62, Wheat, Crossing, 58, no , Arthe, 77, no , 32

So, for this last one... I could have taken 62 units of wheat from crossing at a cost of 58 per
to Arthe dale at a cost of 77 per... for a percent return of 32% on my money. The "nos" there
are whether they are risky trades, ie: if I would be buying above average cost.

So there you have it... now... if you really want to dig in and see some techie stuff. I have a
program available for download that you can sort through thousands and thousands of looks
at pit boards. I have it sent to www.mytwokronars.com and they are making it available
for download there. Enjoy.

If you have any questions about commodity trading drop me an email at nixtroy@play.net.
I would even consider doing "commodity tours" as I have done in the past for people.

Commodities may be hard and nearly unscriptable, but they are the future.

-Player of Benes Malchia

NIXTROY

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Re: Benes' Commodities Handbook Version 2 on 02/13/2003 09:17 PM CST

Wow, that formats horribly in this thing. Check that chart on mytwokronars.

KTTNTEDY

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Re: Benes' Commodities Handbook Version 2 on 02/13/2003 10:31 PM CST

Edited Benes Post for the new boards with nifty tables :)

COMMODITY	NEARLY OUT	GOING FAST	GOOD STORES	SURPLUS	AVERAGE
Diamonds	1 - 9	10 - 49	50 - 79	80 - 100	1811
Gold	1 - 9	10 - 49	50 - 79	80 - 100	1122
Silver	1 - 19	20 - 99	100 - 159	160 - 165	784
Saffron	1 - 12	7 - 52	46 - 82	77 - 100	765
Pearls	1 - 10	10 - 49	50 - 79	80 - 100	753
Silk	1 - 10	8 - 49	50 - 81	79 - 100	577
Brass	1 - 15	15 - 74	75 - 119	120 - 136	454
Cinnamon	1 - 21	16 - 99	100 - 163	156 - 200	339
Slate	1 - 20	18 - 99	100 - 160	158 - 200	362
Limes	1 - 12	8 - 52	49 - 82	78 - 100	349
Purple dye	1 - 12	8 - 50	48 - 80	80 - 100	280
Bronze	1 - 11	11 - 61	62 - 99	100 - 125	277
Oranges	1 - 23	16 - 102	97 - 162	158 - 200	260
Lead	1 - 31	28 - 149	151 - 240	240 - 300	255
Velvet	1 - 12	8 - 50	48 - 79	80 - 100	225
Lace	1 - 12	8 - 50	48 - 79	80 - 100	237
Taffelberries	1 - 22	16 - 102	98 - 160	156 - 200	192
Amber	1 - 14	140 - 147	152 - 240	240 - 303	188
Copper	1 - 26	23 - 122	126 - 199	200 - 250	194
Acanth	1 - 19	19 - 97	98 - 159	159 - 200	184
Myrrh	1 - 12	10 - 63	61 - 99	98 - 125	180
Indigo	1 - 20	18 - 98	98 - 160	158 - 200	155
Papyrus	1 - 14	15 - 72	75 - 120	120 - 150	147
Iron ore	1 - 51	49 - 121	286 - 399	399 - 500	103
Barley	1 - 42	37 - 193	210 - 320	318 - 400	81
Oats	1 - 37	32 - 174	175 - 281	276 - 350	91
Wool	1 - 39	39 - 196	203 - 319	319 - 400	85
Wheat	1 - 43	37 - 199	213 - 321	317 - 400	71
Corn	1 - 116	37 - 200	200 - 321	317 - 400	78
Deobar oil	1 - 25	23 - 124	126 - 198	200 - 250	71
Cotton	1 - 48	50 - 249	249 - 399	400 - 500	77
Salt	1 - 49	50 - 245	262 - 395	417 - 500	34
Apples	1 - 37	32 - 158	184 - 282	278 - 350	39
Charcoal	1 - 71	71 - 327	386 - 560	558 - 700	35

THE BENES MASTER LIST

COMMODITY	BREAKING	AVERAGE
Diamonds	80	1811
Gold	80	1122
Silver	160	784
Saffron	80	765
Pearls	80	753
Silk	80	577
Brass	120	454
Cinnamon	160	339
Slate	160	362
Limes	80	349
Purple dye	80	280
Bronze	100	277
Oranges	160	260
Lead	240	255
Velvet	80	225
Lace	80	237
Taffelberries	160	192
Amber	240	188
Copper	200	194
Acanth	160	184
Myrrh	100	180
Indigo	160	155
Papyrus	120	147
Iron ore	400	103
Barley	320	81
Oats	280	91
Wool	320	85
Wheat	320	71
Corn	320	78
Deobar oil	200	71
Cotton	400	77
Salt	400	34
Apples	280	39
Charcoal	560	35

Here is the technical data on some of the trades I have seen in running
commodity runs... these are not a "best of" list... it's a snapshot of a
normal trading night.

02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 6, Slate, Arthe, 331, no , Crossing, 443, no , 33
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 24, Wheat, Arthe, 59, no , Crossing, 97, no , 64
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 133, Oranges, Crossing, 274, yes, Arthe, 288, no , 5
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 9, Brass, Crossing, 404, no , Arthe, 472, no , 16
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 133, Oranges, Crossing, 274, yes, Arthe, 288, no , 5
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 9, Brass, Crossing, 404, no , Arthe, 472, no , 16
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 22, Indigo, Crossing, 125, no , Arthe, 177, no , 41
02-01-03 12:34:04AM , 10, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:35:08AM , 10, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:37:18AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 8, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 62, Wheat, Crossing, 58, no , Arthe, 77, no , 32
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 8, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 62, Wheat, Crossing, 58, no , Arthe, 77, no , 32

So, for this last one... I could have taken 62 units of wheat from crossing at a cost of 58 per
to Arthe dale at a cost of 77 per... for a percent return of 32% on my money. The "nos" there
are whether they are risky trades, ie: if I would be buying above average cost.

So there you have it... now... if you really want to dig in and see some techie stuff. I have a
program available for download that you can sort through thousands and thousands of looks
at pit boards. I have it sent to www.mytwokronars.com and they are making it available
for download there. Enjoy.

If you have any questions about commodity trading drop me an email at nixtroy@play.net.
I would even consider doing "commodity tours" as I have done in the past for people.

Commodities may be hard and nearly unscriptable, but they are the future.

-Player of Benes Malchia

Umatos Avtoma

I would put a spiffy ASCII caravan here but I am too dumb to draw one right.

NIXTROY

Ignore Author

Re: Benes' Commodities Handbook Version 2 on 02/14/2003 06:21 AM CST

Thanks a ton. Guess next time I'll read instructions first. heh.

BLAYD