Two interesting points and one funny point from roundtable on this morning's Meet the Press:
First, Chuck Todd estimates there is a good chance that the Republican nomination contest could extend all the way to next June. Although many people think the long-lived Democratic contest in 2008 between Obama and Clinton was good for Obama, the same may not be true for the Republicans.
<< MR. TODD: Because you know what, if he doesn't, this race right now is destined to go to June. And while when you say this, a lot of Republicans are realizing this, the calendar, there's lots of reasons why, it's actually more likely to go all the way to the end than not, the new rules and all this stuff. And you have Republicans say, "Oh, it was good for, for Hillary and Obama." But the difference between Hillary and Obama, they weren't having a race to the left all the way to June, and then suddenly Candidate Obama had to lurch back to the middle for, for four months. The fear when you talk to these smart Republicans, Mike Murphy, is that it is a, it is a race to the right all the way to June, and then it's this lurch for four months. >>
The new rules to which Todd refers require Republican primaries held before April to award their delegates proportionally. Historically, Republican primaries have been winner-take-all and Democratic primaries have been proportional. Because many states want to hold their primaries early this year to have a greater say in the nomination process, the Republicans changed their rules to require early states to award delegates proportionally, except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, which are allowed by the new rules to continue their current systems.
Second, Republican strategist Mike Murphy concedes that Perry may be a strong primary candidate and then, if he wins, a weak general election candidate.
<< MR. MURPHY: ...and he might be able to--like Huckabee--they're rare--might be able to run the table. And that's a problem. Because I don't know a senior experienced real consultant in the party who's actually done races who doesn't think that Perry is a super serious candidate for the nomination and a weak candidate in the general election. So I'm not so worried about Bachmann. I don't know if the Perry thing is, even with Obama's weaknesses, would have worked for us this year. But in a primary he could be very tough. >>
Finally, Murphy observed in a funny way that the participants in yesterday's straw poll in Iowa were the fringe of the Republican Party.
<< MR. MURPHY: Now that's, that's all true, but what's really going on here is the president is playing general election politics, and we are in the hub, the atomic center, right here, of the Republican primary. I could have got 1,000 people yesterday to sign a petition against algebra. So this, this isn't even the Republican primary, this isn't even the caucus, this is 11 percent of the caucus... >>